2013 NFL Playoffs

You know, when I hear the talking heads on TV or the radio, it drives me crazy. I always think my opinion is as good as their's. I know it is their job, and they have access to better information than I do, but that doesn't stop me. So, what does that mean, nothing.

That said here are my views on the NFL Playoffs.

The AFC: This conference is wide open because there are no good teams. What I mean is all the teams have flaws. So more pronounced than other. Some in ways you can't see on stats sheets.

1.  Denver Broncos – They are the favorites, and should be. The defense is suspect, 19th in yards per game at 356 and 22nd in points per game at 24.9 (just behind Tampa Bay and ahead of Cleveland). With the injury to Von Miller, it could be disastrous. The saving grace, the offense. It is simply the best in NFL, bar none. The thing that will hurt them is the weather. No just the cold or rain, but the wind. If they get into bad weather game with wind, they are in trouble. Payton Manning is just not a good bad weather quarter back. He goes from great to just very good. I am not predicting that the Bronco will reach the Super Bowl, I am just saying they are the favorites to reach the Super Bowl.
2. Cincinnati Bengals – The Bengals are, talent wise, the best team in the AFC. You don't always win with talent (See Detroit Lions). If things fall right for this team, watch out. The offense averages 26.9 ppg (T6th) and defenses gives up only 19.1 ppg (T5th) (both with KC, but more on them later). Andy Dalton is a better than average QB ( about 15 or 16 if you take out some of the backups). Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis and Giovanni Bernard at RB. WRs, Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu and the great AJ Green. The offense is as explosive as any. The defense is lead by LBs Vontaze Burfit and Ray Maualuga. This team could win it all. One big problem, Marvin Lewis. I don't think he has it. The team doesn't appear ready to win. Let me give you a scenario. Week 17 vs the Ravens, not a good team right now, but they know how to win. Cincinnati leading 27-17 in the 4th quarter, 1st and goal on the 1, Dalton throws an awful pass that gets intercepted, easily. A TD would have ended the game right there. Then Burfit get a roughing the passer penalty, followed by an unsportsmanlike penalty on Adam Jones. Baltimore goes from the 20 to the 50 with out doing in anything. But the defense holds, forcing a 4th and 10. Flaco heaves up pray, which is intercepted at the 16 by Dre Kirkpatrick. IT WAS 4TH DOWN. If he just knocks it down, they have ball at the 50! They may survive that vs Baltimore, but against Denver, New England, Seattle or San Fransisco, I doubt it.
3. New England Patriots – I admit, I am a Patriots fan. New England has lots of flaws. On offense, no outside threats, they are shaky in the Red Zone, and O-line is getting banged up. Because of this, they were on 3rd in the NFL in scoring (1pt behind #2). On defense, no Vince Wilfork, no Jerod Mayo. New England gives up 1st downs on 42.24% of 3rd downs (26th in NFL). So, they only rank 10th in ppg given up (21.1). What the Bengals aren't, the Patriots are. They just don't make stupid mistakes. Oh, and they have a quarterback named Tom Brady.
4. Indianapolis Colts - They are threat if they can play their best. Andrew Luck will be in a Super Bowl someday, just not this year. With out Reggie Wayne, they just don't have enough. Playing at home vs the Chiefs in the 1st round. So they should get win at home.
5. Kansas City Chiefs – See Cincinnati. The problem being, they are not as talented. Kansas City played a weak schedule that helped them. If they can keep Jamal Charles going, they have a puncher's chance. Andy Reid helped this team gel. I just don't think they have enough for the playoffs. Against teams with winning records, 1-4. I took out the loss to SD in week 17 and didn't include the win vs Dallas (8-8). The one win was an early season win vs Philadelphia. The losses, 1 vs SD and 2 vs Broncos and a drubbing vs Indianapolis (their 1st round opponent). Let's see what they can do next year.
6. San Diego Chargers – All I need to say is they needed OT at home to beat a depleted Kansas City team. Wait til next year, or the year after that, maybe 2016..

The NFC: This conference is wide open because there are so many good teams. The NFC is stacked this year. There are 3 teams I would rank above Denver: Seattle, San Fransisco and Carolina. New Orleans at home would get the nod, too. (You may notice something about this list)

1. Seattle Seahawks – All around a great team. Tied for 8th in scoring in NFL. Russell Wilson has that "IT" factor. Other than Wilson and Marshawn Lynch, nobody on the offense stands out. However, the defense ranks 1st, giving up only 14.4 ppg. Everybody looks at Legion of Boom and Seattle's #1 pass defense, but rushing defense only gives up 101.6 ypg (T6th in NFL). All the games are home, with that insane crowd. The Seahawks will be hard to beat, but not impossible.
2. San Fransisco 49ers - Again a all around solid team. Ranked 11th in offense in the NFL. Colin Kapernick is a solid quarterback, he won't lose the game (like Joe Flaco in that regard). But I would want to bet my house on him. The defense, on the other hand, is strong (3rd in the NFL). Other than Patrick Willis, can you name another defensive player on the team. The big advantage is coaching, Jim Harbaugh, IMO, is the best coach in the NFC. (and, yes, I did originally write John:) And, they are playing their best football right now. I only give the slight edge to Seattle because they are at home and SF is a wild card team.
3. Carolina Panthers – They have had a great season. I think Cam Newton is coming into his own this year. He is playing like a NFL quarterback. And their defense (Number 2 in NFL) is playing lights out. This year is the 1st step for something big for this team. With the #2 seed in the NFC, I can see them playing for NFC Championship. But, I still think they are 2 years away. They benefited from playing a weaker schedule this year, but not by much.
4. Philadelphia Eagles – What can you say about this team? They are as likely to win but 20 points as loss by 20. Defensively they are average. Going up against a high powered offense will be a problem. Luckily, it will be New Orleans at home. The offense is hitting on all cylinders right now. Can you believe that Nick Folds is highest rated QB in the NFL? (I would have loved to see those odds in Vegas before the season started.) With LeSean McCoy, the NFL leading rusher, and DeSean Jackson, I think I could have the highest passer ranking in the NFL. I read a quote from Chip Kelly earlier this year saying he didn't force they players into his system, but he built his system around his players. If Philly can improve it defense, watch out, but they don't have enough this year.
5. Green Bay Packers – Arron Rodgers. When healthy, the best QB in the NFL! Realistically, I was surprised they even made the playoffs. They just don't have players around Rodgers to compete in the NFC (put them in AFC). I think they will lose at home to SF.
6. New Orleans Saints – At home, they would be one of the best teams in NFL. On the road, not so much. I can't believe such a Jeckel & Hyde team. Though, the wild card game against Philadelphia should be something to see. If it is a nice day, maybe. Other wise, a 1st round loss.

Well, those are my thoughts on NFL Playoff. As always, the NFL is crazy league, could NO or SD reach the Super Bowl, yes. I just don't think so. I will post my picks later in the week. Let me know what you think.